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The Fed may be on hold, but the front end and long end remain near the upper end of the recent window, while the 10Y–2Y spread is positive but still compressed. That is not a clean relief signal for duration-sensitive risk.
IWM outpacing SPY by 46 basis points on a 6-of-7 green tape is not a defensive squeeze — it's a risk-on rotation with real width. Consumer Staples getting sold while Financials and Technology lead into JPMorgan's print tomorrow is the market making a directional bet, not hedging one.
IWM outran SPY by 60 basis points on a day CDS trading volume hit a record $4.5 trillion. Small-cap leadership and credit hedging at historic highs are not a coherent story, and the tape is forcing you to pick which one to believe.
The 10-year has moved 45 basis points off its March low at the same velocity that preceded the October 2023 rates shock. The Fed is still nominally easing. Those two facts do not belong in the same sentence.